Diet, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 80 countries.

AIMS: To develop a healthy diet score that is associated with health outcomes and is globally applicable using data from the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study and replicate it in five independent studies on a total of 245 000 people from 80 countries. METHODS AND RESULTS: A healthy diet score was developed in 147 642 people from the general population, from 21 countries in the PURE study, and the consistency of the associations of the score with events was examined in five large independent studies from 70 countries. The healthy diet score was developed based on six foods each of which has been associated with a significantly lower risk of mortality [i.e. fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and dairy (mainly whole-fat); range of scores, 0-6]. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality and major cardiovascular events [cardiovascular disease (CVD)]. During a median follow-up of 9.3 years in PURE, compared with a diet score of ≤1 points, a diet score of ≥5 points was associated with a lower risk of mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 0.70; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.63-0.77)], CVD (HR 0.82; 0.75-0.91), myocardial infarction (HR 0.86; 0.75-0.99), and stroke (HR 0.81; 0.71-0.93). In three independent studies in vascular patients, similar results were found, with a higher diet score being associated with lower mortality (HR 0.73; 0.66-0.81), CVD (HR 0.79; 0.72-0.87), myocardial infarction (HR 0.85; 0.71-0.99), and a non-statistically significant lower risk of stroke (HR 0.87; 0.73-1.03). Additionally, in two case-control studies, a higher diet score was associated with lower first myocardial infarction [odds ratio (OR) 0.72; 0.65-0.80] and stroke (OR 0.57; 0.50-0.65). A higher diet score was associated with a significantly lower risk of death or CVD in regions with lower than with higher gross national incomes (P for heterogeneity <0.0001). The PURE score showed slightly stronger associations with death or CVD than several other common diet scores (P < 0.001 for each comparison). CONCLUSION: A diet comprised of higher amounts of fruit, vegetables, nuts, legumes, fish, and whole-fat dairy is associated with lower CVD and mortality in all world regions, especially in countries with lower income where consumption of these foods is low.

Early evidence for the effectiveness of South Africa's legislation on salt restriction in foods: the African-PREDICT study.

South Africa was among the first countries to adopt mandatory regulation in 2016 to lower the salt content in processed foods, aiming to reduce population salt intake to <5 g/day. To assess the effectiveness of this regulation in 20-30 year-old adults, we determined the change in salt intake over a mean follow-up time of 4.56-years spanning the implementation of the regulation. This observational study included baseline (2013-2016; N = 668; 24.9 ± 3 years; 47.8% black; 40.7% men) and follow-up data (2018-ongoing; N = 311; 25.4 ± 3.05 years; 51.1% black; 43.4% men) for participants of the African-PREDICT study. Salt intake was estimated from 24-h urinary sodium excretion. Median salt intake at baseline (N = 668) was 7.88 g/day (IQR: 5.67). In those followed (N = 311), salt intake reduced from baseline [median (IQR): 7.91 g/day (5.83)] to follow-up [7.26 g/day (5.30)] [unadjusted median: -0.82 g/day]. After adjusting for baseline salt intake to address regression to the mean, the mean salt reduction was -1.2 g/day. The greatest reductions were in men [mean difference: -1.47 g/day], black adults [mean difference: -2.04 g/day], and participants from low [mean difference: -1.89 g/day] or middle [mean difference: -1.84 g/day] socio-economic status groups, adjusting for baseline salt intake. Our preliminary findings suggest that South Africa's salt regulation has been effective in lowering salt intake in young adults by ~1.2 g salt/day. Our study supports the effectiveness of upstream interventions to lower population salt intake, particularly for vulnerable groups who may typically consume more processed foods. It needs to be determined if the legislation has the anticipated population health gains.

Factors influencing complementary feeding practices in rural and semi-urban Rwanda: a qualitative study.

The aim of the present study was to identify and describe the factors influencing feeding practices of children aged 6-23 months in Rwanda. This is a cross-sectional descriptive qualitative study. A total of ten focus group discussions were conducted separately with mothers, fathers, grandmothers and community health workers (CHWs) from five different districts in Rwanda. The discussions were recorded, transcribed verbatim, and thematically analysed using qualitative data analysis software, Atlas.ti. The study participants were mothers, fathers and grandmothers of children aged 6-23 months and CHWs in charge of child health. Caregivers' knowledge and beliefs about the benefits of breast-feeding and timely introduction of complementary food were found to be the primary individual factors facilitating good infant and young child feeding practices. The common belief of caregivers that infants should be given liquids (thin gruel, fruit juices and meat broth) as first foods instead of semi-solid foods was a barrier to good feeding practices. The community-based nutrition education and counselling programmes were facilitators of good complementary practices at the group level. At the society level, poverty in rural agrarian households was a barrier to optimal feeding practices. The study shows that there is a need to empower caregivers with more specific guidelines, especially on complementary feeding.

Associations of Fish Consumption With Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality Among Individuals With or Without Vascular Disease From 58 Countries.

Importance: Cohort studies report inconsistent associations between fish consumption, a major source of long-chain ω-3 fatty acids, and risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality. Whether the associations vary between those with and those without vascular disease is unknown. Objective: To examine whether the associations of fish consumption with risk of CVD or of mortality differ between individuals with and individuals without vascular disease. Design, Setting, and Participants: This pooled analysis of individual participant data involved 191 558 individuals from 4 cohort studies-147 645 individuals (139 827 without CVD and 7818 with CVD) from 21 countries in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study and 43 413 patients with vascular disease in 3 prospective studies from 40 countries. Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated by multilevel Cox regression separately within each study and then pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. This analysis was conducted from January to June 2020. Exposures: Fish consumption was recorded using validated food frequency questionnaires. In 1 of the cohorts with vascular disease, a separate qualitative food frequency questionnaire was used to assess intake of individual types of fish. Main Outcomes and Measures: Mortality and major CVD events (including myocardial infarction, stroke, congestive heart failure, or sudden death). Results: Overall, 191 558 participants with a mean (SD) age of 54.1 (8.0) years (91 666 [47.9%] male) were included in the present analysis. During 9.1 years of follow-up in PURE, compared with little or no fish intake (≤50 g/mo), an intake of 350 g/wk or more was not associated with risk of major CVD (HR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.86-1.04) or total mortality (HR, 0.96; 0.88-1.05). By contrast, in the 3 cohorts of patients with vascular disease, the HR for risk of major CVD (HR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.73-0.96) and total mortality (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.74-0.91) was lowest with intakes of at least 175 g/wk (or approximately 2 servings/wk) compared with 50 g/mo or lower, with no further apparent decrease in HR with consumption of 350 g/wk or higher. Fish with higher amounts of ω-3 fatty acids were strongly associated with a lower risk of CVD (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, 0.92-0.97 per 5-g increment of intake), whereas other fish were neutral (collected in 1 cohort of patients with vascular disease). The association between fish intake and each outcome varied by CVD status, with a lower risk found among patients with vascular disease but not in general populations (for major CVD, I2 = 82.6 [P = .02]; for death, I2 = 90.8 [P = .001]). Conclusions and Relevance: Findings of this pooled analysis of 4 cohort studies indicated that a minimal fish intake of 175 g (approximately 2 servings) weekly is associated with lower risk of major CVD and mortality among patients with prior CVD but not in general populations. The consumption of fish (especially oily fish) should be evaluated in randomized trials of clinical outcomes among people with vascular disease.

White Rice Intake and Incident Diabetes: A Study of 132,373 Participants in 21 Countries.

OBJECTIVE: Previous prospective studies on the association of white rice intake with incident diabetes have shown contradictory results but were conducted in single countries and predominantly in Asia. We report on the association of white rice with risk of diabetes in the multinational Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data on 132,373 individuals aged 35-70 years from 21 countries were analyzed. White rice consumption (cooked) was categorized as <150, ≥150 to <300, ≥300 to <450, and ≥450 g/day, based on one cup of cooked rice = 150 g. The primary outcome was incident diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using a multivariable Cox frailty model. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up period of 9.5 years, 6,129 individuals without baseline diabetes developed incident diabetes. In the overall cohort, higher intake of white rice (≥450 g/day compared with <150 g/day) was associated with increased risk of diabetes (HR 1.20; 95% CI 1.02-1.40; P for trend = 0.003). However, the highest risk was seen in South Asia (HR 1.61; 95% CI 1.13-2.30; P for trend = 0.02), followed by other regions of the world (which included South East Asia, Middle East, South America, North America, Europe, and Africa) (HR 1.41; 95% CI 1.08-1.86; P for trend = 0.01), while in China there was no significant association (HR 1.04; 95% CI 0.77-1.40; P for trend = 0.38). CONCLUSIONS: Higher consumption of white rice is associated with an increased risk of incident diabetes with the strongest association being observed in South Asia, while in other regions, a modest, nonsignificant association was seen.

Association of dairy consumption with metabolic syndrome, hypertension and diabetes in 147 812 individuals from 21 countries.

OBJECTIVE: Our aims were to assess the association of dairy intake with prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (cross-sectionally) and with incident hypertension and incident diabetes (prospectively) in a large multinational cohort study. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a prospective epidemiological study of individuals aged 35 and 70 years from 21 countries on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.1 years. In the cross-sectional analyses, we assessed the association of dairy intake with prevalent MetS and its components among individuals with information on the five MetS components (n=112 922). For the prospective analyses, we examined the association of dairy with incident hypertension (in 57 547 individuals free of hypertension) and diabetes (in 131 481 individuals free of diabetes). RESULTS: In cross-sectional analysis, higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day compared with zero intake; OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80, p-trend<0.0001) was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS after multivariable adjustment. Higher intakes of whole fat dairy consumed alone (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78, p-trend<0.0001), or consumed jointly with low fat dairy (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98, p-trend=0.0005), were associated with a lower MetS prevalence. Low fat dairy consumed alone was not associated with MetS (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.38, p-trend=0.13). In prospective analysis, 13 640 people with incident hypertension and 5351 people with incident diabetes were recorded. Higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day vs zero serving/day) was associated with a lower incidence of hypertension (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97, p-trend=0.02) and diabetes (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.02, p-trend=0.01). Directionally similar associations were found for whole fat dairy versus each outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Higher intake of whole fat (but not low fat) dairy was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS and most of its component factors, and with a lower incidence of hypertension and diabetes. Our findings should be evaluated in large randomized trials of the effects of whole fat dairy on the risks of MetS, hypertension, and diabetes.

Association of nut intake with risk factors, cardiovascular disease, and mortality in 16 countries from 5 continents: analysis from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study.

BACKGROUND: The association of nuts with cardiovascular disease and deaths has been investigated mostly in Europe, the USA, and East Asia, with few data available from other regions of the world or from low- and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVE: To assess the association of nuts with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology study is a large multinational prospective cohort study of adults aged 35-70 y from 16 low-, middle-, and high-income countries on 5 continents. Nut intake (tree nuts and ground nuts) was measured at the baseline visit, using country-specific validated FFQs. The primary outcome was a composite of mortality or major cardiovascular event [nonfatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, or heart failure]. RESULTS: We followed 124,329 participants (age = 50.7 y, SD = 10.2; 41.5% male) for a median of 9.5 y. We recorded 10,928 composite events [deaths (n = 8,662) or major cardiovascular events (n = 5,979)]. Higher nut intake (>120 g per wk compared with <30 g per mo) was associated with a lower risk of the primary composite outcome of mortality or major cardiovascular event [multivariate HR (mvHR): 0.88; 95% CI: 0.80, 0.96; P-trend = 0.0048]. Significant reductions in total (mvHR: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.69, 0.87; P-trend <0.0001), cardiovascular (mvHR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.56, 0.92; P-trend = 0.048), and noncardiovascular mortality (mvHR: 0.82; 95% CI: 0.70, 0.96; P-trend = 0.0046) with a trend to reduced cancer mortality (mvHR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.65, 1.00; P-trend = 0.081) were observed. No significant associations of nuts were seen with major CVD (mvHR: 0.91; 95% CI: 0.81, 1.02; P-trend = 0.14), stroke (mvHR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.84, 1.14; P-trend = 0.76), or MI (mvHR: 0.86; 95% CI: 0.72, 1.04; P-trend = 0.29). CONCLUSIONS: Higher nut intake was associated with lower mortality risk from both cardiovascular and noncardiovascular causes in low-, middle-, and high-income countries.

Association of dairy consumption with metabolic syndrome, hypertension and diabetes in 147 812 individuals from 21 countries

OBJECTIVE: Our aims were to assess the association of dairy intake with prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) (cross-sectionally) and with incident hypertension and incident diabetes (prospectively) in a large multinational cohort study. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a prospective epidemiological study of individuals aged 35 and 70 years from 21 countries on five continents, with a median follow-up of 9.1 years. In the cross-sectional analyses, we assessed the association of dairy intake with prevalent MetS and its components among individuals with information on the five MetS components (n=112 922). For the prospective analyses, we examined the association of dairy with incident hypertension (in 57 547 individuals free of hypertension) and diabetes (in 131 481 individuals free of diabetes). RESULTS: In cross-sectional analysis, higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day compared with zero intake; OR 0.76, 95% CI 0.71 to 0.80, p-trend<0.0001) was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS after multivariable adjustment. Higher intakes of whole fat dairy consumed alone (OR 0.72, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.78, p-trend<0.0001), or consumed jointly with low fat dairy (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.80 to 0.98, p-trend=0.0005), were associated with a lower MetS prevalence. Low fat dairy consumed alone was not associated with MetS (OR 1.03, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.38, p-trend=0.13). In prospective analysis, 13 640 people with incident hypertension and 5351 people with incident diabetes were recorded. Higher intake of total dairy (at least two servings/day vs zero serving/day) was associated with a lower incidence of hypertension (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.97, p-trend=0.02) and diabetes (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.76 to 1.02, p-trend=0.01). Directionally similar associations were found for whole fat dairy versus each outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Higher intake of whole fat (but not low fat) dairy was associated with a lower prevalence of MetS and most of its component factors, and with a lower incidence of hypertension and diabetes. Our findings should be evaluated in large randomized trials of the effects of whole fat dairy on the risks of MetS, hypertension, and diabetes.

Assessing the construct validity of nutrient profiling models for restricting the marketing of foods to children in South Africa.

BACKGROUND: In an effort to combat childhood obesity the WHO has called on governments to restrict the marketing of unhealthy foods to children. Regulators have turned to nutrient profiling (NP) to provide the evidence for their decisions. This has resulted in the development of NP models, of which the validity of only a few have been established. The aim of this study was to assess the construct validity of various NP models for the purpose of restricting the marketing of unhealthy foods to children in South Africa by comparing the classification of foods by the models to the ranking of the same foods by registered dietitians. METHODS: Six current NP models were identified, then a representative food database of 120 foods was developed and each individual food was classified by each of the six models. Lastly dietitians were recruited to rank the healthfulness of the same 120 foods. RESULTS: Dietitians allowed 24% of the included foods for marketing to children, whereas the percentage of foods allowed by the included models ranged from 7 to 47%. Majority of pairwise comparisons between the NP models and dietitians yielded Ò¡ statistics >0.6, indicating substantial agreement. An almost perfect pairwise agreement was found between dietitians and the WHO Regional Office for Europe model. CONCLUSION: The included NP models displayed good construct validity by agreeing with dietitians on what are 'less healthy' foods, thus the foods not allowed for marketing. The findings of this study contributes to the process of establishing validity of NP models.

Magnesium Intake Predicts Bone Turnover in Postmenopausal Black South African Women.

This prospective study investigated the association between nutrient intake, dietary patterns, and changes in bone turnover and bone mineral density (BMD) in postmenopausal urban black South African women over two years. These women (n = 144) underwent BMD measurements at the distal radius, lumbar spine, femoral neck (FN), as well as a biochemical analysis which included the parathyroid hormone (PTH), 25-hydroxyvitamin D, C-Telopeptide of type I collagen (CTX-1) in 2010 and 2012. Their dietary intake was assessed in 2010 using a food frequency questionnaire, and sociodemographic and health information was collected. Four dietary patterns explained 54.4% of the variance of dietary intake, namely staple foods and processed meats, home cooking, snacking, and high sugar. Dietary magnesium negatively correlated with CTx-1 in 2012 (r = -0.21, p = 0.02), calcium correlated with distal radius BMD in 2010 (r = 0.22, p = 0.01) and 2012 (r = 0.24, p = 0.005), and the snacking dietary pattern score correlated with FN BMD in 2010 (r = 0.18, p = 0.03) and 2012 (r = 0.21, p = 0.02). The baseline CTx-1 and dietary magnesium intake predicted 22% of the variance in percentage change of CTx-1 over two years (p < 0.001).The magnesium intake predicted short-term bone resorption over two years.

Plasma phospholipid fatty acid patterns are associated with adiposity and the metabolic syndrome in black South Africans: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND: Diets rich in n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) and saturated fatty acids (SFA) have been associated with increased risk of obesity and the metabolic syndrome (MetS), but the evidence is inconsistent, whereas diets high in n-3 long-chain (LC) -PUFAs are associated with lower risk. There is limited information about the association of plasma phospholipid fatty acids (FAs) with obesity and the MetS among black South Africans. OBJECTIVE: To investigate the association of dietary FAs and plasma phospholipid FA patterns, respectively, with measures of adiposity (body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-height ratio) and the MetS in black South Africans. METHODS: Factor analysis was used to identify FA patterns from 11 dietary FAs and 26 individual plasma phospholipid FAs. Cross-sectional association of the identified patterns with measures of adiposity and the MetS was investigated. A random sample of 711 black South African adults aged 30 to 70 years (273 men, 438 women) from the North West Province was selected from the South African leg of the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Sequential regression models adjusted for confounders were applied to investigate the association between dietary FAs and plasma phospholipid FA patterns with measures of adiposity and the MetS. RESULTS: Two patterns were derived from dietary FAs and six patterns from plasma phospholipid FAs that explained the cumulative variance of 89 and 73%, respectively. The association of FA patterns with adiposity and the MetS was weaker for dietary FA patterns than for plasma phospholipid FA patterns. The plasma phospholipid FA pattern with high loadings of saturated FAs (high-Satfat) and another with high loadings of n-3 very-long-chain PUFAs (n-3 VLC-PUFAs) were positively associated with measures of adiposity and the MetS, while patterns with positive loadings of LC monounsaturated fatty acids (n-9 LC-MUFA) and a positive loading of n-3 essential FAs (n-3 EFA) showed inverse associations with the MetS and some measures of adiposity. CONCLUSION: The n-9 LC-MUFA and n-3 EFA patterns seemed to provide possible protective associations with adiposity and the MetS, whereas the high-Satfat and n-3 VLC-PUFA patterns were associated with adiposity and the MetS in our study participants. The results are reflective of the metabolic difference between overweight and obese compared to lean individuals.

Food or nutrient pattern assessment using the principal component analysis applied to food questionnaires. Pitfalls, tips and tricks.

We considered the Blom's transformation, a statistical method aimed to normalise and standardise food intakes before principal component analysis. A simulation study was performed to evaluate the eigenvalue distribution of a correlation matrix under common conditions in food questionnaire analysis. The scree plot visual inspection and the Guttman-Kaiser (GK) criterion were compared to Horn's parallel analysis to evaluate their efficacy in food pattern identification. The scree plot results as a monotone continuous series when no food patterns are present. In this situation, about 50% of the eigenvalues assume a value higher than one, showing a first fallacy of the GK. When three food patterns are simulated a clear discontinuity appears after the third eigenvalue, showing that the scree-plot visual inspection is a suitable method to identify food patterns. Finally, according to the present work it appears that the GK generates a number of false-positive food patterns.

Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND: Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35­70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9·1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75­0·94; ptrend=0·0004), total mortality (0·83, 0·72­0·96; ptrend=0·0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·86, 0·72­1·02; ptrend=0·046), cardiovascular mortality (0·77, 0·58­1·01; ptrend=0·029), major cardiovascular disease (0·78, 0·67­0·90; ptrend=0·0001), and stroke (0·66, 0·53­0·82; ptrend=0·0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·71­1·11; ptrend=0·163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82­0·99; ptrend=0·0529) and yogurt (0·86, 0·75­0·99; ptrend=0·0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0·88, 0·76­1·02; ptrend=0·1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·90­1·33; ptrend=0·4113).

Association of dairy intake with cardiovascular disease and mortality in 21 countries from five continents (PURE): a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Dietary guidelines recommend minimising consumption of whole-fat dairy products, as they are a source of saturated fats and presumed to adversely affect blood lipids and increase cardiovascular disease and mortality. Evidence for this contention is sparse and few data for the effects of dairy consumption on health are available from low-income and middle-income countries. Therefore, we aimed to assess the associations between total dairy and specific types of dairy products with mortality and major cardiovascular disease. METHODS: The Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study is a large multinational cohort study of individuals aged 35-70 years enrolled from 21 countries in five continents. Dietary intakes of dairy products for 136 384 individuals were recorded using country-specific validated food frequency questionnaires. Dairy products comprised milk, yoghurt, and cheese. We further grouped these foods into whole-fat and low-fat dairy. The primary outcome was the composite of mortality or major cardiovascular events (defined as death from cardiovascular causes, non-fatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox frailty models with random intercepts to account for clustering of participants by centre. FINDINGS: Between Jan 1, 2003, and July 14, 2018, we recorded 10 567 composite events (deaths [n=6796] or major cardiovascular events [n=5855]) during the 9·1 years of follow-up. Higher intake of total dairy (>2 servings per day compared with no intake) was associated with a lower risk of the composite outcome (HR 0·84, 95% CI 0·75-0·94; ptrend=0·0004), total mortality (0·83, 0·72-0·96; ptrend=0·0052), non-cardiovascular mortality (0·86, 0·72-1·02; ptrend=0·046), cardiovascular mortality (0·77, 0·58-1·01; ptrend=0·029), major cardiovascular disease (0·78, 0·67-0·90; ptrend=0·0001), and stroke (0·66, 0·53-0·82; ptrend=0·0003). No significant association with myocardial infarction was observed (HR 0·89, 95% CI 0·71-1·11; ptrend=0·163). Higher intake (>1 serving vs no intake) of milk (HR 0·90, 95% CI 0·82-0·99; ptrend=0·0529) and yogurt (0·86, 0·75-0·99; ptrend=0·0051) was associated with lower risk of the composite outcome, whereas cheese intake was not significantly associated with the composite outcome (0·88, 0·76-1·02; ptrend=0·1399). Butter intake was low and was not significantly associated with clinical outcomes (HR 1·09, 95% CI 0·90-1·33; ptrend=0·4113). INTERPRETATION: Dairy consumption was associated with lower risk of mortality and major cardiovascular disease events in a diverse multinational cohort. FUNDING: Full funding sources are listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).

Changes in food intake from 2005 to 2010 by a cohort of black rural and urban African men and women in the North West Province of South Africa: the PURE-NWP-SA study.

OBJECTIVE: We have shown that nutrient intakes of rural and urban black Africans in the North West Province (NWP) of South Africa (SA) followed the typical nutrition transition pattern upon urbanization and modernization. The current study aimed to examine and report on the changes in food intakes from 2005 to 2010 in rural and urban black South Africans participating in the PURE-NWP-SA study.Design/Setting/SubjectsThe PURE-NWP-SA study recruited 2010 volunteers aged 35-70 years in 2005, from which detailed food intakes, measured with a validated quantified FFQ, for 1858 participants were available. In 2010, food intakes of a cohort of 1154 of these participants were measured. RESULTS: Median energy intake increased in men and women in both rural and urban areas from 2005 to 2010. Changes in food intake were interpreted keeping these changes in energy intake and the contribution of foods and food groups to total energy intake in mind. No 'new' foods were eaten in 2010, but more participants consumed certain foods and products in 2010 than in 2005. Beneficial changes were increased intakes of vegetables, fruit and milk in most groups. The contribution of cooked staple porridges and bread made from fortified maize and bread flour decreased and therefore also did their contribution to micronutrient intakes. CONCLUSIONS: By promoting and supporting observed beneficial changes such as increased intakes of milk, vegetables and fruit by appropriate policies and educational interventions, it should be possible to steer the nutrition transition in this population into a positive direction.

Accelerated nutrition transition in the North West Province of South Africa: results from the Prospective Urban and Rural Epidemiology (PURE-NWP-SA) cohort study, 2005 to 2010.

OBJECTIVE: South Africa (SA) is in the midst of a health transition characterized by a quadruple burden of diseases and a nutrition transition. The existing nutrition transition in SA, accompanied by the coexistence of under- and overnutrition in the population, motivated the present study. Its objectives were to measure and report the changes in nutrient intakes of rural and urban black Africans over time to assess the impact of urbanization and modernization of lifestyles on dietary intakes and non-communicable disease (NCD) risk. DESIGN: The PURE-NWP-SA study recruited 2000 black South African volunteers aged 35-70 years in 2005, of which detailed nutrient intakes from 1858 participants were available. In 2010 nutrient intakes of a cohort of 1154 participants were measured. RESULTS: Median energy intake increased over time. In 2010, rural participants consumed the amount of energy (men 9·7 MJ/d; women 9·1 MJ/d) that urban participants consumed in 2005 (men 9·9 MJ/d; women 9·0 MJ/d). The nutrition transition was characterized by increases in the percentage of energy from animal protein, total fat (rural men and women), saturated (not urban women) and monounsaturated fat, as well as added sugar. Despite the higher energy intake, not all the participants met total micronutrient needs in 2010. CONCLUSIONS: The PURE nutrient intake data confirmed that the nutrition transition in the North West Province of SA is extremely rapid in rural areas. The shift towards higher energy intakes, an animal food-based diet, higher intakes of fat and lower intake of fibre, at the cost of lower plant protein and starchy food intakes, could increase the risk of NCD.

The development of a single health-endorsement logo for South Africa.

OBJECTIVE: To develop health-endorsement logos (HEL) for food products indicating healthy choices based on the South African nutrient profile model and to pilot test these logos with consumers. DESIGN: Multistage mixed-methods design. SETTING: Cape Town, South Africa. SUBJECTS: Nine focus group discussions (FGD) were conducted with adult consumers to explore what types of HEL are preferred and why. Based on the findings, ten HEL were designed by a graphic design team. A modified Delphi technique, conducted with experts in the fields of nutrition and food science, was employed to eliminate lowest-scoring HEL and to improve the design of the remaining logos. Participants from the initial FGD participated in pilot testing the improved logos. RESULTS: Participants from FGD (n 67) were positive about a single HEL, stating it would make food labelling less confusing as they did not understand the various HEL used. Participants indicated the logo should include wording related to 'healthy choice' or 'better choice' and pictures/symbols related to health and/or food. During two rounds of scoring and comments by experts (n 19), five logos were eliminated and the design of the remaining five improved. Three of five remaining logos received overall rankings of 3·08/5, 3·28/5 and 3·39/5, respectively, during FGD (n 36) in the pilot-testing phase. CONCLUSION: HEL were designed and consumer tested. Three designs were submitted to the national Department of Health to consider for implementation, after further testing, as a tool to assist in addressing the high incidence of non-communicable diseases in South Africa.

Monitoring the South African population's salt intake: spot urine v. 24 h urine.

OBJECTIVE: The present study set out to determine whether morning spot urine samples can be used to monitor Na (and K) intake levels in South Africa, instead of the 'gold standard' 24 h urine sample. DESIGN: Participants collected one 24 h and one spot urine sample for Na and K analysis, after which estimations using three different formulas (Kawasaki, Tanaka and INTERSALT) were calculated. SETTING: Between 2013 and 2015, urine samples were collected from different population groups in South Africa. SUBJECTS: A total of 681 spot and 24 h urine samples were collected from white (n 259), black (n 315) and Indian (n 107) subgroups, mostly women. RESULTS: The Kawasaki and the Tanaka formulas showed significantly higher (P≤0·001) estimated Na values than the measured 24 h excretion in the whole population (5677·79 and 4235·05 v. 3279·19 mg/d). The INTERSALT formula did not differ from the measured 24 h excretion for the whole population. The Kawasaki formula seemed to overestimate Na excretion in all subgroups tested and also showed the highest degree of bias (-2242 mg/d, 95 % CI-10 659, 6175) compared with the INTERSALT formula, which had the lowest bias (161 mg/d, 95 % CI-4038, 4360). CONCLUSIONS: Estimations of Na excretion by the three formulas should be used with caution when reporting on Na intake levels. More research is needed to validate and develop a specific formula for the South African context with its different population groups. The WHO's recommendation of using 24 h urine collection until more studies are carried out is still supported.

Evaluation of a Mass-Media Campaign to Increase the Awareness of the Need to Reduce Discretionary Salt Use in the South African Population.

The South African strategic plan to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) includes reducing population salt intake to less than 5 g/day. A mass media campaign was undertaken to increase public awareness of the association between high salt intake, blood pressure and CVD, and focused on the reduction of discretionary salt intake. Community based surveys, before and after the campaign, were conducted in a cohort of black women aged 18-55 years. Questions on knowledge, attitudes and beliefs regarding salt use were asked. Current interest in engaging with salt reduction behaviors was assessed using the "stage of change" model. Five hundred fifty women participated in the baseline study and 477 in the follow-up survey. Most of the indicators of knowledge, attitudes and behavior change show a significant move towards considering and initiating reduced salt consumption. Post intervention, significantly more participants reported that they were taking steps to control salt intake (38% increased to 59.5%, p < 0.0001). In particular, adding salt while cooking and at the table occurred significantly less frequently. The findings suggest that mass media campaigns may be an effective tool to use as part of a strategy to reduce discretionary consumption of salt among the population along with other methods.

Association of dietary nutrients with blood lipids and blood pressure in 18 countries: a cross-sectional analysis from the PURE study.

BACKGROUND: The relation between dietary nutrients and cardiovascular disease risk markers in many regions worldwide is unknown. In this study, we investigated the effect of dietary nutrients on blood lipids and blood pressure, two of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease, in low-income, middle-income, and high-income countries. METHODS: We studied 125 287 participants from 18 countries in North America, South America, Europe, Africa, and Asia in the Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) study. Habitual food intake was measured with validated food frequency questionnaires. We assessed the associations between nutrients (total fats, saturated fatty acids, monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, carbohydrates, protein, and dietary cholesterol) and cardiovascular disease risk markers using multilevel modelling. The effect of isocaloric replacement of saturated fatty acids with other fats and carbohydrates was determined overall and by levels of intakes by use of nutrient density models. We did simulation modelling in which we assumed that the effects of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease events was solely related to their association through an individual risk marker, and then compared these simulated risk marker-based estimates with directly observed associations of saturated fatty acids with cardiovascular disease events. FINDINGS: Participants were enrolled into the study from Jan 1, 2003, to March 31, 2013. Intake of total fat and each type of fat was associated with higher concentrations of total cholesterol and LDL cholesterol, but also with higher HDL cholesterol and apolipoprotein A1 (ApoA1), and lower triglycerides, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol, and ratio of apolipoprotein B (ApoB) to ApoA1 (all ptrend<0·0001). Higher carbohydrate intake was associated with lower total cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, and ApoB, but also with lower HDL cholesterol and ApoA1, and higher triglycerides, ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol, ratio of triglycerides to HDL cholesterol, and ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio (all ptrend<0·0001, apart from ApoB [ptrend=0·0014]). Higher intakes of total fat, saturated fatty acids, and carbohydrates were associated with higher blood pressure, whereas higher protein intake was associated with lower blood pressure. Replacement of saturated fatty acids with carbohydrates was associated with the most adverse effects on lipids, whereas replacement of saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats improved some risk markers (LDL cholesterol and blood pressure), but seemed to worsen others (HDL cholesterol and triglycerides). The observed associations between saturated fatty acids and cardiovascular disease events were approximated by the simulated associations mediated through the effects on the ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio, but not with other lipid markers including LDL cholesterol. INTERPRETATION: Our data are at odds with current recommendations to reduce total fat and saturated fats. Reducing saturated fatty acid intake and replacing it with carbohydrate has an adverse effect on blood lipids. Substituting saturated fatty acids with unsaturated fats might improve some risk markers, but might worsen others. Simulations suggest that ApoB-to-ApoA1 ratio probably provides the best overall indication of the effect of saturated fatty acids on cardiovascular disease risk among the markers tested. Focusing on a single lipid marker such as LDL cholesterol alone does not capture the net clinical effects of nutrients on cardiovascular risk. FUNDING: Full funding sources listed at the end of the paper (see Acknowledgments).